Ansar Allah, better known as the Houthis in Yemen, have made drone warfare part of their trademark. Backed by Iran, the group turned the Red Sea into a battlefield in 2023, targeting commercial and naval shipping in support of Hamas’ attacks on Israel.

The sharing of lethal drone technology with al-Shabaab and IS Somalia could recast the conflict in the Horn and beyond.

As the Houthis deepen ties with armed groups in Somalia, including Al-Shabaab and Islamic State in Somalia, we assess the likelihood that drone-focused tactics could be exported across the Gulf. Experts warn that Somalia’s porous coastlines have become critical for the Houthis’ access to Iranian supplies of Chinese components, which underpin their expanding drone and missile programme.

Peacekeepers know that for now, assault rifles are still the weapon of choice in Somalia. But sharing technology and expertise with a key player in Yemen’s complex proxy war could recast the conflict in the Horn of Africa and beyond.

The question now is whether these ties will lead to more sophisticated drones entering Somalia. The answer, it seems, is almost certainly yes. The Houthi’s paymasters in Iran may also benefit, gaining strategic depth in the Horn of Africa, shaping risk perceptions and responses far beyond Somalia.

Originally published on ISS Africa.